US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties were White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Bellwether counties: Where in America do voters nail it? North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Telegram Telegram These key counties are telling the story of America's shifting (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election - WSJ Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. 6. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. Until this year. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Fact check: Trump-backed Michigan congressional candidate John - CNN Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. From Florida to Texas, the 6 Key Counties That Could Decide the - Vogue The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. List of election bellwether counties in the United States (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. That report was issued on Nov. 12. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. Subscribe to breaking updates Just how big is it? 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Free and open-source. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. Website Updates Paused In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. But that's no longer the case. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. "They followed through the whole four years. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. Republicans have paid some attention. Will That Last?]. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results.
Italian Cigarettes Brands,
Black Owned Businesses In Gatlinburg, Tn,
Articles OTHER
*
Be the first to comment.